China’s economy has not yet formed inflation expectations

Zuo Xiaolei believes that China's economy has not yet formed inflation expectations. From the perspective of the real economy, producers are still destocking, private investment has not been activated, PPI and CPI are still falling sharply, employment is difficult, and disposable income of residents is decreasing. The problem has not been solved yet; from the market perspective, the 10-year government bond interest rate is relatively stable; from a research perspective, inflation has a two- to three-year lag period relative to the money supply. Although China faces input inflation caused by rising overseas commodity prices And the liquidity caused by forced settlement is abundant, but the global economy is still in recession, and China has not yet formed substantial inflationary pressure.

Zuo Xiaolei reminded that although inflation has a lag period of two to three years relative to the money supply, it needs to be prevented in advance. It should be at the right time and at the right time when the economy has stabilized and began to recover and the money demand has begun to be mobilized. Scale the monetary policy in time, curb inflation, and ensure the sound operation of the economy.

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