Analysis of the Import and Export Situation of Pharmaceuticals in July 2010

In July 2010, China's import and export of medicines and health products reached 5.269 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 24.41% over the same period last year, of which exports were 3.503 billion U.S. dollars, up 25.69% year-on-year, and imports were 1.766 billion U.S. dollars, up 21.45% year-on-year. From the recent export data, pharmaceutical exports have been at historically high levels for three consecutive months. The analysis of global trade data (GTI) has been used to analyze the main reasons for the recent high growth. One is the effective expansion of the world's major pharmaceutical markets; the other is India and Brazil. Markets in developing countries such as Russia have developed rapidly; third, the market share of low-end pharmaceutical products in China has further increased, which has stimulated the general growth of various types of pharmaceutical products in China. At the same time, the pharmaceutical foreign trade environment in the second half of the year will face the impact of global destocking, the debt crisis in the euro zone, and China’s export structure adjustment. It is expected that the pharmaceutical exports will shift from the current high-speed growth to moderate growth, and the year-on-year increase will decline. .

I. Rapid growth of raw material medicine market in Russia and Brazil, slowing growth in Europe and the United States market

From January to July of this year, the recovery of raw material medicines' exports and its growth are the main factors that drive the growth of the overall pharmaceutical exports. Its weight still exceeds 50%. In July, the export of APIs still maintained a rapid growth, with an increase of 21.21%. According to GTI's global customs data, the global pharmaceutical demand market continues to show an upward trend due to the emerging markets. From the analysis of bulk APIs such as antibiotics, vitamins and antipyretics and analgesics, the global market growth reflected two aspects. First, the demand from Europe and the United States remained flat, but the share of imports originating from China further increased, including Chinese products in the United States. Its market share increased from 29.1% in the same period of last year to 33.1%, from the EU's 20.7% to 26.7%; Second, India, Brazil, Russia, ASEAN and other developing countries have rapid growth in demand, with the Indian market increasing by 36.7%. Brazil's growth rate reached 41.62% (January to July), Russia increased 52.6% (from January to June), and its share of China’s imports has increased to varying degrees. In the medium to long term, the cost-effectiveness of China's bulk drugs will continue to be maintained, and the global market share is expected to continue to increase.

2. The export growth of low-end and middle-end medical device products continues unabated, and high-tech equipment faces market breakthroughs

In July, China’s medical device products exported 1.267 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 30.60% year-on-year. Medical dressings, diagnostic and therapeutic equipment, health care and rehabilitation supplies increased by 37.7%, 30.14%, and 32.41%, respectively. China’s products are still dominated by medium and low-end products. With a wide range of export markets, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN in North America, the European Union, and Asia are the major markets, and their market share is gradually expanding. In the first half of 2010, the global market import volume reached 60 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 7% year-on-year. China Products in the United States, the European Union, Japan and other markets, the share has exceeded 8%, the market share increased by about 2%, the long-term growth is still huge. From the perspective of higher-tech products, exports of self-owned brands such as nuclear magnetic resonance, kidney dialysis instruments, and color Doppler ultrasound products have increased significantly during the year. In the second quarter, exports increased by 76.29%, but the share of the equipment lags far behind that of domestic medical investment. Equipment multinational corporations only account for 15% of the export share of such products.

Third, Chinese medicine exports are still confined to traditional Asian markets, with limited short-term development potential

In July, exports of Chinese medicines were US$150 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.72%, accounting for 4.27% of pharmaceutical exports. The export market was still concentrated in Asian traditional markets, accounting for 66.18% of exports. At present, Chinese medicine exports are still subject to international drug registration and traditional culture. Constraints, coupled with the limited resources of domestic Chinese herbal medicines, the export of Chinese herbal medicines will continue to maintain a relatively stable trend.

Fourth, the export of the coastal provinces has increased significantly, and the growth rate of exports from Hebei, Liaoning and Tianjin has lagged behind

The exports of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong along the coast of China, led by the growth in the export of APIs, and their export growth continued to lead the national average, with growth rates of 30.25%, 25.48%, and 33.65% respectively. Guangdong, Shanghai, and Fujian rely on the expansion of medical device exports. The growth rate reached 25.66%, 23.87% and 66.39%. Among them, the growth rate of medical device products from Fujian to the United States and Japan reached 46.84% and 85.88%, respectively, and the follow-up performance is worthy of attention. The pharmaceutical exports of Hebei, Liaoning, and Tianjin were squeezed by similar domestic products, and the growth rate was far behind the national average, with increases of 8.94%, 7.92%, and 1.35%, respectively.

V. Pharmaceutical imports will increase as domestic demand expands, and will continue to maintain high growth in the medium and long term

As domestic demand continued to grow, imports of pharmaceuticals continued to maintain a good growth trend. Medical equipment, biochemicals, and western medicines grew significantly, with year-on-year increases of 36.83%, 71.29%, and 19.45%, respectively. Import sources were concentrated in the United States, the European Union, and Japan. The country accounts for 84.04% of the import share. The imported products include high-end medical products such as various kinds of medicines, implantable body instruments, color ultrasound, and nuclear magnetic resonance devices.